Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
