A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
